THE BETTING ODDS – AT 9:46 A.M. ET:  Nate Silver, formerly of The New York Times, is one of the best political handicappers writing today.  He is highly regarded for his application of research and statistics to his political prognostications, and he has some guardedly good news for us.  From The Hill:   

Statistician Nate Silver on Sunday said Republicans are now slight favorites to win at least six seats and take control of the Senate.

Silver wrote in a blog post that Republicans “have great opportunities in a number of states." At this point, he is rating West Virginia, South Dakota, Montana and Arkansas as “clearly” as leaning toward the Republicans.

In an interview that aired on ABC’s “This Week,” Silver said the GOP has a 60 percent chance of winning control of the Senate, and a 30 percent chance to win it big. The Democrats, by contrast, have only a 40 percent of holding on to their majority, he said.

Arkansas is one state where Republicans have been "pretty consistently ahead in the polls,” he said. “We give them a 70 percent chance of winning in Arkansas. Louisiana is about 55 percent. North Carolina is a purple state so that’s about as 50-50 as it gets.”

Rep. Tom Cotton (R) is challenging incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor in Arkansas. Rep. Bill Cassidy (R), among others, is running against incumbent Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu in Louisiana. A slew of GOP candidates are running to unseat incumbent Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan in North Carolina.

The GOP has a 45 percent chance to win in Alaska and Michigan, 35 percent chance in Colorado and 30 percent chance in Iowa, Silver said on “This Week.”

Silver predicts Republicans will pick up six Senate seats, but could win as many as 11.

COMMENT:  The worst thing is for the GOP to be overconfident, as the late President Dewey might have told us.  Silver's projections are "as of today."  Conditions may change, and the GOP has often worked hard to lose elections.  Our side must always fight as if it's 20 points behind.  It's the only way to fight an election.

And let's not forget that the Democrats always fight hard.

I'm glad to see optimism, and I'm encouraged by Silver's numbers.  But the only numbers that count are the ones on election day. 

March 24, 2014